AlphaMadera

MRP Millrose Properties, Inc.

$30.49

Real Estate Investment Trust 85%

P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 38.5% below fair value

You pay $30.49

Bear $41.89

Fair $49.59

Bull $57.28

Bear $41.89 +37.4% $2.46 FFO × 16x

Fair $49.59 +62.6% $2.46 FFO × 19x

Bull $57.28 +87.9% $2.46 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.0x

FFO per Share

2.46$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.46) × residential P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 12.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Summary

At $2.46 FFO/share with a 19x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $49.59 per share. Dividend yield: 9.9%. DDM cross-check: $56.10.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 9.9% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify