AlphaMadera

MRP Millrose Properties, Inc.

$23.86

Real Estate Investment Trust 85%

P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 52.2% below fair value

You pay $23.86

Bear $42.18

Fair $49.92

Bull $57.67

Bear $42.18 +76.8% $2.46 FFO × 16x

Fair $49.92 +109.2% $2.46 FFO × 19x

Bull $57.67 +141.7% $2.46 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.0x

FFO per Share

2.46$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.46) × residential P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 9.7x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Summary

At $2.46 FFO/share with a 19x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $49.92 per share. Dividend yield: 12.9%. DDM cross-check: $57.21.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 12.9% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify