MRNA
Moderna, Inc.
$225.00
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 89185.7% above fair value
You pay
$225.00
Bear
$0.22
Fair
$0.25
Bull
$0.29
Bear
$0.22
-99.9%
$0.01 × 18x P/E
Fair
$0.25
-99.9%
$0.01 × 21x P/E
Bull
$0.29
-99.9%
$0.01 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.0x
0.01$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18750.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$115.70
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.01, the base-case value is $0.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $115.70 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples