MRNA
Moderna, Inc.
$46.88
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 85.6% below fair value
You pay
$46.88
Bear
$279.98
Fair
$326.65
Bull
$373.31
Bear
$279.98
+497.2%
$20.10 × 18x P/E
Fair
$326.65
+596.8%
$20.10 × 21x P/E
Bull
$373.31
+696.3%
$20.10 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
2.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.29 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $326.65 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $40.29 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 948% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples