MPLX
MPLX Lp
$58.16
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.6% below fair value
You pay
$58.16
Bear
$57.84
Fair
$72.30
Bull
$86.76
Bear
$57.84
-0.6%
$4.82 × 12x P/E
Fair
$72.30
+24.3%
$4.82 × 15x P/E
Bull
$86.76
+49.2%
$4.82 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
4.82$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$63.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.82, the base-case value is $72.30 per share. DDM cross-check: $144.22.
Warnings
The company pays out 89% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $144.22 (above our primary estimate by 99%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples