MPLX
MPLX Lp
$58.71
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.1% below fair value
You pay
$58.71
Bear
$56.67
Fair
$70.83
Bull
$85.00
Bear
$56.67
-3.5%
$4.96 × 12x P/E
Fair
$70.83
+20.6%
$4.96 × 15x P/E
Bull
$85.00
+44.8%
$4.96 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $60.25 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.83 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 87% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $120.79 (above our primary estimate by 62%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples