MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
$478.07
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 187.7% above fair value
You pay
$478.07
Bear
$128.04
Fair
$166.17
Bull
$189.06
Bear
$128.04
-73.2%
FCF $6664M × 10x
Fair
$166.17
-65.2%
FCF $5950M × 13x
Bull
$189.06
-60.5%
FCF $5236M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$444.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $166.17 per share. Range: $128.04 (bear) to $189.06 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -73%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $444.30 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential