MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
$373.32
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 133.5% above fair value
You pay
$373.32
Bear
$123.16
Fair
$159.85
Bull
$181.86
Bear
$123.16
-67.0%
FCF $6664M × 10x
Fair
$159.85
-57.2%
FCF $5950M × 13x
Bull
$181.86
-51.3%
FCF $5236M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$323.78
Divergence from AlphaVal
51%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $159.85 per share. Range: $123.16 (bear) to $181.86 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $323.78 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential