MP
MP Materials Corp.
$46.03
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1821.5% above fair value
You pay
$46.03
Bear
$1.92
Fair
$2.40
Bull
$2.87
Bear
$1.92
-95.8%
$0.14 × 14x P/E
Fair
$2.40
-94.8%
$0.14 × 17x P/E
Bull
$2.87
-93.8%
$0.14 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.1x
0.14$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
328.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$80.70
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.14, the base-case value is $2.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $80.70 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 54% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples