MP
MP Materials Corp.
$64.46
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 122.3% above fair value
You pay
$64.46
Bear
$23.20
Fair
$29.00
Bull
$34.80
Bear
$23.20
-64.0%
$0.80 × 16x P/E
Fair
$29.00
-55.0%
$0.80 × 21x P/E
Bull
$34.80
-46.0%
$0.80 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
80.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $79.40 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $79.40 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples