MOV
Movado Group, Inc.
$37.81
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.3% above fair value
You pay
$37.81
Bear
$30.16
Fair
$37.70
Bull
$45.23
Bear
$30.16
-20.2%
$2.31 × 12x P/E
Fair
$37.70
-0.3%
$2.31 × 15x P/E
Bull
$45.23
+19.6%
$2.31 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.70 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 97%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 124% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $46.66 (above our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples