MOV
Movado Group, Inc.
$32.75
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.0% above fair value
You pay
$32.75
Bear
$24.72
Fair
$30.90
Bull
$37.08
Bear
$24.72
-24.5%
$2.06 × 12x P/E
Fair
$30.90
-5.6%
$2.06 × 15x P/E
Bull
$37.08
+13.2%
$2.06 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.06$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.06, the base-case value is $30.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $30.29.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 76%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 128% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples