MOV
Movado Group, Inc.
$28.45
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.6% below fair value
You pay
$28.45
Bear
$26.96
Fair
$33.70
Bull
$40.43
Bear
$26.96
-5.2%
$2.31 × 12x P/E
Fair
$33.70
+18.4%
$2.31 × 15x P/E
Bull
$40.43
+42.1%
$2.31 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.70 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 97%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 120% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $144.13 (above our primary estimate by 316%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples