MOS
The Mosaic Company
$22.51
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.5% below fair value
You pay
$22.51
Bear
$14.97
Fair
$24.32
Bull
$33.68
Bear
$14.97
-33.5%
$3.50 × 7x + net cash
Fair
$24.32
+8.1%
$3.50 × 10x + net cash
Bull
$33.68
+49.6%
$3.50 × 12x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.50)
Implied Market Multiple
6.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.00 from 49 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.32 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Price-to-book value of 0.6x is below the typical low point. This could be a bargain, but check whether asset write-downs are coming.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing