MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc.
$184.14
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.0% below fair value
You pay
$184.14
Bear
$160.19
Fair
$200.25
Bull
$240.30
Bear
$160.19
-13.0%
$13.54 × 13x P/E
Fair
$200.25
+8.7%
$13.54 × 16x P/E
Bull
$240.30
+30.5%
$13.54 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $169.75 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $200.25 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 52%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $169.75 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples