MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc.
$196.88
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.7% below fair value
You pay
$196.88
Bear
$166.95
Fair
$208.70
Bull
$250.44
Bear
$166.95
-15.2%
$13.54 × 13x P/E
Fair
$208.70
+6.0%
$13.54 × 16x P/E
Bull
$250.44
+27.2%
$13.54 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $197.92 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $208.70 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 52%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples