MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc.
$204.79
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.0% below fair value
You pay
$204.79
Bear
$170.65
Fair
$213.32
Bull
$255.98
Bear
$170.65
-16.7%
$13.54 × 13x P/E
Fair
$213.32
+4.2%
$13.54 × 16x P/E
Bull
$255.98
+25.0%
$13.54 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.8x
13.54$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (39 analysts)
$216.73
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $13.54, the base-case value is $213.32 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 52%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples