MOG-A
Moog Inc.
$371.68
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 216.4% above fair value
You pay
$371.68
Bear
$96.12
Fair
$117.48
Bull
$138.84
Bear
$96.12
-74.1%
$5.34 × 18x
Fair
$117.48
-68.4%
$5.34 × 22x
Bull
$138.84
-62.6%
$5.34 × 26x
Adjust Assumptions
22.0x
5.34$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($5.34)
Implied Market Multiple
69.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$131.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $5.34 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $117.48 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 10.9x.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Price-to-book value of 10.9x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing