MOD
Modine Manufacturing Company
$274.50
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 105.5% above fair value
You pay
$274.50
Bear
$113.03
Fair
$133.59
Bull
$154.14
Bear
$113.03
-58.8%
$2.49 × 26x P/E
Fair
$133.59
-51.3%
$2.49 × 31x P/E
Bull
$154.14
-43.8%
$2.49 × 36x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (31x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
110.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $358.17 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $133.59 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $358.17 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples