MOD
Modine Manufacturing Company
$194.66
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 450.8% above fair value
You pay
$194.66
Bear
$22.22
Fair
$35.34
Bull
$48.82
Bear
$22.22
-88.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$35.34
-81.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$48.82
-74.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
98.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
32.6%
vs 12.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$345.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $35.34 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $345.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions