MNTK
Montauk Renewables, Inc.
$2.64
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 115.0% above fair value
You pay
$2.64
Bear
$0.98
Fair
$1.23
Bull
$1.47
Bear
$0.98
-62.8%
$0.07 × 14x P/E
Fair
$1.23
-53.5%
$0.07 × 18x P/E
Bull
$1.47
-44.2%
$0.07 × 22x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.9x
0.07$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
38.6x
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.07, the base-case value is $1.23 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 461%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples