MNTK
Montauk Renewables, Inc.
$1.68
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.9% below fair value
You pay
$1.68
Bear
$1.51
Fair
$1.73
Bull
$1.95
Bear
$1.51
-9.9%
$0.09 × 17x P/E
Fair
$1.73
+3.0%
$0.09 × 19x P/E
Bull
$1.95
+15.8%
$0.09 × 22x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.6x
Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $1.73 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 640%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples