MNST
Monster Beverage Corporation
$97.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 50.4% above fair value
You pay
$97.07
Bear
$45.47
Fair
$64.52
Bull
$84.46
Bear
$45.47
-53.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$64.52
-33.5%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$84.46
-13.0%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
49.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.0%
vs 12.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $92.17 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $92.17 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions