MNST
Monster Beverage Corporation
$46.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 76.2% above fair value
You pay
$46.44
Bear
$18.58
Fair
$26.36
Bull
$34.51
Bear
$18.58
-60.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$26.36
-43.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$34.51
-25.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
47.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.4%
vs 12.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (44 analysts)
$84.68
Divergence from AlphaVal
69%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $26.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $84.68 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions