MNST
Monster Beverage Corporation
$43.40
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 64.4% above fair value
You pay
$43.40
Bear
$18.61
Fair
$26.40
Bull
$34.56
Bear
$18.61
-57.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$26.40
-39.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$34.56
-20.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
43.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.4%
vs 12.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (44 analysts)
$98.22
Divergence from AlphaVal
73%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $26.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $98.22 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions