MNST
Monster Beverage Corporation
$86.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.1% above fair value
You pay
$86.79
Bear
$44.29
Fair
$62.85
Bull
$82.28
Bear
$44.29
-49.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$62.85
-27.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$82.28
-5.2%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
43.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $86.60 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $86.60 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions