MNKD
MannKind Corporation
$3.29
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 57.0% below fair value
You pay
$3.29
Bear
$3.33
Fair
$7.66
Bull
$12.81
Bear
$3.33
+1.1%
14% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$7.66
+132.8%
23% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$12.81
+289.3%
30% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
23.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (23%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
58%
Implied Market Multiple
3.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$10.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
Projecting 23% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 20% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $7.66 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 82% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep