MNDY
monday.com Ltd.
$91.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 59.3% below fair value
You pay
$91.07
Bear
$136.98
Fair
$223.68
Bull
$332.57
Bear
$136.98
+50.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$223.68
+145.6%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$332.57
+265.2%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
14.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.2%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$110.42
Divergence from AlphaVal
103%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $223.68 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 149% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $110.42 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 103% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions