MMSI Merit Medical Systems, Inc.
$78.29
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 36.7% above fair value

You pay $78.29
Bear $45.82
Fair $57.28
Bull $68.74
Bear $45.82 -41.5% $2.81 × 14x P/E
Fair $57.28 -26.8% $2.81 × 17x P/E
Bull $68.74 -12.2% $2.81 × 21x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.20 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.28 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 32%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $94.20 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples