MMSI
Merit Medical Systems, Inc.
$64.17
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.7% above fair value
You pay
$64.17
Bear
$45.95
Fair
$57.44
Bull
$68.93
Bear
$45.95
-28.4%
$2.81 × 14x P/E
Fair
$57.44
-10.5%
$2.81 × 17x P/E
Bull
$68.93
+7.4%
$2.81 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $95.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.44 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 32%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $95.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples