MMSI Merit Medical Systems, Inc.
$64.17
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 11.7% above fair value

You pay $64.17
Bear $45.95
Fair $57.44
Bull $68.93
Bear $45.95 -28.4% $2.81 × 14x P/E
Fair $57.44 -10.5% $2.81 × 17x P/E
Bull $68.93 +7.4% $2.81 × 21x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $95.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.44 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 32%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $95.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples