MMSI
Merit Medical Systems, Inc.
$87.21
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 139.2% above fair value
You pay
$87.21
Bear
$29.17
Fair
$36.46
Bull
$43.75
Bear
$29.17
-66.6%
$2.13 × 14x P/E
Fair
$36.46
-58.2%
$2.13 × 17x P/E
Bull
$43.75
-49.8%
$2.13 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.1x
2.13$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
40.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$101.88
Divergence from AlphaVal
64%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.13, the base-case value is $36.46 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $101.88 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples