MMSI
Merit Medical Systems, Inc.
$78.29
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.7% above fair value
You pay
$78.29
Bear
$45.82
Fair
$57.28
Bull
$68.74
Bear
$45.82
-41.5%
$2.81 × 14x P/E
Fair
$57.28
-26.8%
$2.81 × 17x P/E
Bull
$68.74
-12.2%
$2.81 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.20 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.28 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 32%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $94.20 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples