MMS
Maximus, Inc.
$63.50
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.1% below fair value
You pay
$63.50
Bear
$72.63
Fair
$90.79
Bull
$108.95
Bear
$72.63
+14.4%
$5.51 × 13x P/E
Fair
$90.79
+43.0%
$5.51 × 16x P/E
Bull
$108.95
+71.6%
$5.51 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.5x
5.51$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$110.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
17%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.51, the base-case value is $90.79 per share. DDM cross-check: $29.28.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $29.28 (below our primary estimate by 68%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples