MMS
Maximus, Inc.
$56.92
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 37.3% below fair value
You pay
$56.92
Bear
$72.63
Fair
$90.79
Bull
$108.95
Bear
$72.63
+27.6%
$5.51 × 13x P/E
Fair
$90.79
+59.5%
$5.51 × 16x P/E
Bull
$108.95
+91.4%
$5.51 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.5x
5.51$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$110.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
17%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.51, the base-case value is $90.79 per share. DDM cross-check: $25.85.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $25.85 (below our primary estimate by 72%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples