MMS
Maximus, Inc.
$59.67
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.9% below fair value
You pay
$59.67
Bear
$86.63
Fair
$108.28
Bull
$129.95
Bear
$86.63
+45.2%
$6.54 × 13x P/E
Fair
$108.28
+81.5%
$6.54 × 16x P/E
Bull
$129.95
+117.8%
$6.54 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $110.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $108.28 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $25.85 (below our primary estimate by 76%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples