MMI
Marcus & Millichap, Inc.
$28.14
Distressed or Transitioning
60%
Current FCF × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 103.4% above fair value
You pay
$28.14
Bear
$10.76
Fair
$13.84
Bull
$16.92
Bear
$10.76
-61.8%
Same FCF, market stays skeptical at 4x
Fair
$13.84
-50.8%
Same FCF, 6x depressed multiple
Bull
$16.92
-39.9%
Same FCF, multiple re-rates to 8x
Adjust Assumptions
6.0x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
15.3x
Summary
Stock is 16% below 52-week high. Using current FCF at a 6x depressed multiple, base-case value is $13.84. Wide scenario range: $10.76–$16.92.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case