MMI
Marcus & Millichap, Inc.
$31.89
Distressed or Transitioning
60%
Current FCF × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 130.2% above fair value
You pay
$31.89
Bear
$10.77
Fair
$13.85
Bull
$16.94
Bear
$10.77
-66.2%
Same FCF, market stays skeptical at 4x
Fair
$13.85
-56.6%
Same FCF, 6x depressed multiple
Bull
$16.94
-46.9%
Same FCF, multiple re-rates to 8x
Adjust Assumptions
6.0x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
17.7x
Summary
Stock is 5% below 52-week high. Using current FCF at a 6x depressed multiple, base-case value is $13.85. Wide scenario range: $10.77–$16.94.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case