MMI
Marcus & Millichap, Inc.
$31.17
Distressed or Transitioning
60%
Current FCF × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 123.7% above fair value
You pay
$31.17
Bear
$10.82
Fair
$13.93
Bull
$17.04
Bear
$10.82
-65.3%
FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair
$13.93
-55.3%
Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull
$17.04
-45.3%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
17.1x
Summary
Stock is 7% below 52-week high. Using current FCF at a 6x depressed multiple, base-case value is $13.93. Wide scenario range: $10.82–$17.04.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case