MLR
Miller Industries, Inc.
$52.11
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.4% above fair value
You pay
$52.11
Bear
$41.66
Fair
$47.62
Bull
$53.57
Bear
$41.66
-20.0%
$2.98 × 14x P/E
Fair
$47.62
-8.6%
$2.98 × 16x P/E
Bull
$53.57
+2.8%
$2.98 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.98$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.5x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.98, the base-case value is $47.62 per share. DDM cross-check: $16.69.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 50%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $16.69 (below our primary estimate by 65%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples