MLI
Mueller Industries, Inc.
$54.37
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.4% below fair value
You pay
$54.37
Bear
$53.11
Fair
$67.46
Bull
$81.20
Bear
$53.11
-2.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$67.46
+24.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$81.20
+49.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
15.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.8%
vs 9.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$75.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $67.46 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions