MLI
Mueller Industries, Inc.
$59.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.3% below fair value
You pay
$59.13
Bear
$53.69
Fair
$68.20
Bull
$82.09
Bear
$53.69
-9.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$68.20
+15.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$82.09
+38.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
17.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.3%
vs 9.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.20 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions