MLI
Mueller Industries, Inc.
$133.39
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.3% above fair value
You pay
$133.39
Bear
$104.68
Fair
$132.98
Bull
$160.06
Bear
$104.68
-21.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$132.98
-0.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$160.06
+20.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
20.1x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $132.98 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions