MLAB
Mesa Laboratories, Inc.
$129.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 137.5% above fair value
You pay
$129.96
Bear
$48.62
Fair
$54.72
Bull
$62.24
Bear
$48.62
-62.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$54.72
-57.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$62.24
-52.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
27.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.0%
vs 4.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$110.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $54.72 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 266% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $110.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions