MLAB
Mesa Laboratories, Inc.
$108.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.3% above fair value
You pay
$108.64
Bear
$59.73
Fair
$82.75
Bull
$104.12
Bear
$59.73
-45.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$82.75
-23.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$104.12
-4.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
23.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $82.75 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions