MKSI
MKS Inc.
$214.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 54.3% above fair value
You pay
$214.83
Bear
$85.10
Fair
$139.19
Bull
$193.45
Bear
$85.10
-60.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$139.19
-35.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$193.45
-10.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
28.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.4%
vs 11.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$404.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
66%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $139.19 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $404.00 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions