MKSI
MKS Inc.
$246.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 76.9% above fair value
You pay
$246.44
Bear
$85.19
Fair
$139.34
Bull
$193.66
Bear
$85.19
-65.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$139.34
-43.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$193.66
-21.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
31.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.9%
vs 11.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$408.14
Divergence from AlphaVal
66%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $139.34 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $408.14 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions