MKC
McCormick & Company, Incorporated
$47.97
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.7% below fair value
You pay
$47.97
Bear
$41.02
Fair
$49.81
Bull
$58.60
Bear
$41.02
-14.5%
$2.93 × 14x P/E
Fair
$49.81
+3.8%
$2.93 × 17x P/E
Bull
$58.60
+22.2%
$2.93 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
2.93$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$53.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
7%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.93, the base-case value is $49.81 per share. DDM cross-check: $76.14.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $76.14 (above our primary estimate by 53%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples