MITK
Mitek Systems, Inc.
$19.33
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.2% below fair value
You pay
$19.33
Bear
$15.91
Fair
$22.52
Bull
$29.37
Bear
$15.91
-17.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$22.52
+16.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$29.37
+52.0%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
20.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.0%
vs 12.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.52 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 191% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 51% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions