MITK
Mitek Systems, Inc.
$17.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 37.5% below fair value
You pay
$17.70
Bear
$19.96
Fair
$28.30
Bull
$36.96
Bear
$19.96
+12.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.30
+59.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$36.96
+108.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
15.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.6%
vs 12.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$21.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.30 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 191% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.50 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions