MIR
Mirion Technologies, Inc.
$18.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 60.6% above fair value
You pay
$18.35
Bear
$5.92
Fair
$11.43
Bull
$17.30
Bear
$5.92
-67.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$11.43
-37.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$17.30
-5.7%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
55.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.25 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.43 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 53% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.25 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions