MIR
Mirion Technologies, Inc.
$16.16
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.7% above fair value
You pay
$16.16
Bear
$5.94
Fair
$11.25
Bull
$16.91
Bear
$5.94
-63.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$11.25
-30.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$16.91
+4.6%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
49.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.2%
vs 13.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.75 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.25 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 53% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.75 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions