MIR
Mirion Technologies, Inc.
$16.62
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 41.7% above fair value
You pay
$16.62
Bear
$6.82
Fair
$11.73
Bull
$16.96
Bear
$6.82
-59.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$11.73
-29.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$16.96
+2.0%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
36.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.9%
vs 13.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$23.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $11.73 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 53% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions