MIDD
The Middleby Corporation
$113.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.3% below fair value
You pay
$113.05
Bear
$153.99
Fair
$222.79
Bull
$290.73
Bear
$153.99
+36.2%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$222.79
+97.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$290.73
+157.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
11.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.9%
vs 10.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$159.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $222.79 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $159.25 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions