MIDD
The Middleby Corporation
$148.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.9% above fair value
You pay
$148.09
Bear
$113.15
Fair
$141.13
Bull
$165.54
Bear
$113.15
-23.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$141.13
-4.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$165.54
+11.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
15.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $192.50 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $141.13 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $192.50 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions