MIDD
The Middleby Corporation
$105.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.6% below fair value
You pay
$105.72
Bear
$154.02
Fair
$222.83
Bull
$290.78
Bear
$154.02
+45.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$222.83
+110.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$290.78
+175.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
10.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.2%
vs 10.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$161.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $222.83 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $161.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions