MIDD
The Middleby Corporation
$134.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.3% below fair value
You pay
$134.92
Bear
$113.05
Fair
$141.01
Bull
$165.40
Bear
$113.05
-16.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$141.01
+4.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$165.40
+22.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.5%
vs 5.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $192.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $141.01 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $192.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions