MHO
M/I Homes, Inc.
$124.48
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 57.3% below fair value
You pay
$124.48
Bear
$226.94
Fair
$291.78
Bull
$356.62
Bear
$226.94
+82.3%
$16.21 × 14x
Fair
$291.78
+134.4%
$16.21 × 18x
Bull
$356.62
+186.5%
$16.21 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
16.21$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($16.21)
Implied Market Multiple
7.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$168.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
73%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $16.21 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $291.78 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.0x.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $168.50 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 73% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing