MHK Mohawk Industries, Inc.
$127.94
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 34.8% above fair value

You pay $127.94
Bear $83.02
Fair $94.88
Bull $106.74
Bear $83.02 -35.1% $5.93 × 14x P/E
Fair $94.88 -25.8% $5.93 × 16x P/E
Bull $106.74 -16.6% $5.93 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
5.93$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.6x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (32 analysts) $123.83
Divergence from AlphaVal 23%

Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.93, the base-case value is $94.88 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples