MHK
Mohawk Industries, Inc.
$111.50
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.9% below fair value
You pay
$111.50
Bear
$100.42
Fair
$114.78
Bull
$129.12
Bear
$100.42
-9.9%
$6.98 × 14x P/E
Fair
$114.78
+2.9%
$6.98 × 16x P/E
Bull
$129.12
+15.8%
$6.98 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $121.88 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $114.78 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples