MHK Mohawk Industries, Inc.
$102.40
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 11.2% below fair value

You pay $102.40
Bear $100.95
Fair $115.38
Bull $129.79
Bear $100.95 -1.4% $6.98 × 14x P/E
Fair $115.38 +12.7% $6.98 × 16x P/E
Bull $129.79 +26.8% $6.98 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $123.89 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $115.38 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples