MHK
Mohawk Industries, Inc.
$124.72
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.5% above fair value
You pay
$124.72
Bear
$83.02
Fair
$94.88
Bull
$106.74
Bear
$83.02
-33.4%
$5.93 × 14x P/E
Fair
$94.88
-23.9%
$5.93 × 16x P/E
Bull
$106.74
-14.4%
$5.93 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
5.93$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$133.14
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.93, the base-case value is $94.88 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $133.14 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples