MHK
Mohawk Industries, Inc.
$102.40
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.2% below fair value
You pay
$102.40
Bear
$100.95
Fair
$115.38
Bull
$129.79
Bear
$100.95
-1.4%
$6.98 × 14x P/E
Fair
$115.38
+12.7%
$6.98 × 16x P/E
Bull
$129.79
+26.8%
$6.98 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $123.89 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $115.38 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples