MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
$25.35
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 32.3% above fair value
You pay
$25.35
Bear
$9.44
Fair
$19.16
Bull
$32.12
Bear
$9.44
-62.8%
FCF $299M × 8x
Fair
$19.16
-24.4%
FCF $427M × 11x
Bull
$32.12
+26.7%
FCF $555M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$33.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $19.16 per share. Range: $9.44 (bear) to $32.12 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $33.60 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential