MGNI
Magnite, Inc.
$18.51
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.6% below fair value
You pay
$18.51
Bear
$12.61
Fair
$19.82
Bull
$27.83
Bear
$12.61
-31.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$19.82
+7.1%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$27.83
+50.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
25.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.0%
vs 15.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.25 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.82 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 53% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions