MGNI
Magnite, Inc.
$24.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.5% below fair value
You pay
$24.84
Bear
$18.12
Fair
$29.05
Bull
$41.40
Bear
$18.12
-27.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$29.05
+16.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$41.40
+66.6%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
24.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.7%
vs 15.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $29.05 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 53% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions