MGNI
Magnite, Inc.
$13.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 38.4% below fair value
You pay
$13.20
Bear
$14.47
Fair
$21.44
Bull
$29.17
Bear
$14.47
+9.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$21.44
+62.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$29.17
+121.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
14.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.44 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 53% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions