MGM
MGM Resorts International
$29.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
28.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.8%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$48.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $48.75 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions