MGA
Magna International Inc.
$73.05
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 52.7% above fair value
You pay
$73.05
Bear
$41.86
Fair
$47.84
Bull
$53.82
Bear
$41.86
-42.7%
$2.99 × 14x P/E
Fair
$47.84
-34.5%
$2.99 × 16x P/E
Bull
$53.82
-26.3%
$2.99 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.99$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$69.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.99, the base-case value is $47.84 per share. DDM cross-check: $42.23.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $69.00 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples