META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
$728.08
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.8% above fair value
You pay
$728.08
Bear
$289.74
Fair
$506.41
Bull
$769.17
Bear
$289.74
-60.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$506.41
-30.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$769.17
+5.6%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
58.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.3%
vs 18.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (65 analysts)
$770.26
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $506.41 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 34% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $770.26 (from 65 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions