META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
$582.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.3% below fair value
You pay
$582.90
Bear
$364.01
Fair
$704.53
Bull
$1,151.11
Bear
$364.01
-37.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$704.53
+20.9%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,151.11
+97.5%
28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
48.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.7%
vs 21.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $827.50 from 65 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $704.53 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 34% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions