MET
MetLife, Inc.
$95.19
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.7% above fair value
You pay
$95.19
Bear
$64.29
Fair
$91.84
Bull
$119.39
Bear
$64.29
-32.5%
ROTCE 8.9% → 1.08x TBV
Fair
$91.84
-3.5%
ROTCE 11.9% → 1.72x TBV
Bull
$119.39
+25.4%
ROTCE 13.7% → 2.11x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.16x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $98.22 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $91.84 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $46.60 (48% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly