MET
MetLife, Inc.
$84.06
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.7% below fair value
You pay
$84.06
Bear
$63.75
Fair
$91.07
Bull
$118.39
Bear
$63.75
-24.2%
ROTCE 8.9% → 1.08x TBV
Fair
$91.07
+8.3%
ROTCE 11.9% → 1.73x TBV
Bull
$118.39
+40.8%
ROTCE 13.7% → 2.12x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $95.67 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $91.07 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $46.14 (48% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly