MEOH
Methanex Corporation
$60.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.9% below fair value
You pay
$60.12
Bear
$80.15
Fair
$103.47
Bull
$124.22
Bear
$80.15
+33.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$103.47
+72.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$124.22
+106.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
10.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.75 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $103.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $69.75 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions