MEOH
Methanex Corporation
$64.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.0% below fair value
You pay
$64.96
Bear
$108.06
Fair
$114.06
Bull
$126.46
Bear
$108.06
+66.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$114.06
+75.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$126.46
+94.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
9.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.8%
vs 3.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$72.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $114.06 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $72.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 57% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions