MELI
MercadoLibre, Inc.
$1,876.04
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 98.4% above fair value
You pay
$1,876.04
Bear
$827.19
Fair
$945.36
Bull
$1,063.53
Bear
$827.19
-55.9%
$39.39 × 21x P/E
Fair
$945.36
-49.6%
$39.39 × 24x P/E
Bull
$1,063.53
-43.3%
$39.39 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
24.0x
39.39$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
47.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$2170.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Summary
Applying a 24x P/E to adjusted EPS of $39.39, the base-case value is $945.36 per share. DDM cross-check: $8.66.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $8.66 (below our primary estimate by 99%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $2170.00 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples