MELI
MercadoLibre, Inc.
$1,664.42
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.8% above fair value
You pay
$1,664.42
Bear
$1,148.45
Fair
$1,312.52
Bull
$1,476.58
Bear
$1,148.45
-31.0%
$39.44 × 21x P/E
Fair
$1,312.52
-21.1%
$39.44 × 24x P/E
Bull
$1,476.58
-11.3%
$39.44 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
42.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $2166.67 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1312.52 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $8.66 (below our primary estimate by 99%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $2166.67 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples