MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
$519.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.0% below fair value
You pay
$519.96
Bear
$409.69
Fair
$604.80
Bull
$812.89
Bear
$409.69
-21.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$604.80
+16.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$812.89
+56.3%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
22.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.4%
vs 13.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $498.86 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $604.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $498.86 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions