MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
$615.76
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.1% below fair value
You pay
$615.76
Bear
$455.53
Fair
$684.99
Bull
$933.43
Bear
$455.53
-26.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$684.99
+11.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$933.43
+51.6%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
25.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.4%
vs 13.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$606.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $684.99 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions