MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
$602.43
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.2% below fair value
You pay
$602.43
Bear
$441.22
Fair
$663.47
Bull
$904.10
Bear
$441.22
-26.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$663.47
+10.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$904.10
+50.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
25.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.1%
vs 13.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $598.89 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $663.47 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions