MED
Medifast, Inc.
$12.59
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 88.7% below fair value
You pay
$12.59
Bear
$89.28
Fair
$111.60
Bull
$133.92
Bear
$89.28
+609.1%
$9.10 × 12x P/E
Fair
$111.60
+786.4%
$9.10 × 15x P/E
Bull
$133.92
+963.7%
$9.10 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
1.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $12.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 1038% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples