MEC
Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.
$14.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 51.9% below fair value
You pay
$14.19
Bear
$22.43
Fair
$29.49
Bull
$36.21
Bear
$22.43
+58.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$29.49
+107.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$36.21
+155.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
9.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-0.7%
vs 8.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$38.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $29.49 per share.
Warnings
This stock is 63% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions