MDXG
MiMedx Group, Inc.
$4.11
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 38.9% below fair value
You pay
$4.11
Bear
$6.72
Fair
$6.72
Bull
$7.08
Bear
$6.72
+63.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$6.72
+63.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$7.08
+72.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
7.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.8%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.72 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 34% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions