MDXG
MiMedx Group, Inc.
$4.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.1% below fair value
You pay
$4.68
Bear
$5.85
Fair
$5.85
Bull
$6.17
Bear
$5.85
+25.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$5.85
+25.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$6.17
+31.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
8.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.0%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$7.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $5.85 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 34% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions