MDT
Medtronic plc
$92.77
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 65.8% above fair value
You pay
$92.77
Bear
$44.76
Fair
$55.95
Bull
$67.14
Bear
$44.76
-51.8%
$3.73 × 12x P/E
Fair
$55.95
-39.7%
$3.73 × 15x P/E
Bull
$67.14
-27.6%
$3.73 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.73$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (51 analysts)
$98.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.73, the base-case value is $55.95 per share. DDM cross-check: $46.71.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $98.00 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples