MDLZ
Mondelez International, Inc.
$61.76
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.5% above fair value
You pay
$61.76
Bear
$46.45
Fair
$56.41
Bull
$66.36
Bear
$46.45
-24.8%
$3.05 × 14x P/E
Fair
$56.41
-8.7%
$3.05 × 17x P/E
Bull
$66.36
+7.4%
$3.05 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $67.00 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.41 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 61%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 106% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $354.49 (above our primary estimate by 583%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples