MDLZ
Mondelez International, Inc.
$61.28
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.6% above fair value
You pay
$61.28
Bear
$42.56
Fair
$51.68
Bull
$60.80
Bear
$42.56
-30.5%
$3.04 × 14x P/E
Fair
$51.68
-15.7%
$3.04 × 17x P/E
Bull
$60.80
-0.8%
$3.04 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
3.04$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (42 analysts)
$70.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.04, the base-case value is $51.68 per share. DDM cross-check: $234.57.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 61%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 107% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $234.57 (above our primary estimate by 354%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $70.29 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples