MDLZ
Mondelez International, Inc.
$60.86
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.0% above fair value
You pay
$60.86
Bear
$46.40
Fair
$56.35
Bull
$66.30
Bear
$46.40
-23.8%
$3.05 × 14x P/E
Fair
$56.35
-7.4%
$3.05 × 17x P/E
Bull
$66.30
+8.9%
$3.05 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $66.82 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.35 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 61%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 106% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $354.49 (above our primary estimate by 583%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples