MDLN Medline Inc.
$37.01
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 23.7% below fair value

You pay $37.01
Bear $38.80
Fair $48.50
Bull $58.20
Bear $38.80 +4.8% $2.95 × 13x P/E
Fair $48.50 +31.1% $2.95 × 16x P/E
Bull $58.20 +57.3% $2.95 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.91 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.50 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 107%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples