MDLN Medline Inc.
$41.04
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 15.3% below fair value

You pay $41.04
Bear $38.74
Fair $48.43
Bull $58.12
Bear $38.74 -5.6% $2.95 × 13x P/E
Fair $48.43 +18.0% $2.95 × 16x P/E
Bull $58.12 +41.6% $2.95 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.55 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.43 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 107%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples