MDLN
Medline Inc.
$33.69
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.8% above fair value
You pay
$33.69
Bear
$18.75
Fair
$23.44
Bull
$28.12
Bear
$18.75
-44.3%
$1.43 × 13x P/E
Fair
$23.44
-30.4%
$1.43 × 16x P/E
Bull
$28.12
-16.5%
$1.43 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.4x
1.43$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$44.11
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.43, the base-case value is $23.44 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $44.11 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples