MDLN
Medline Inc.
$37.01
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.7% below fair value
You pay
$37.01
Bear
$38.80
Fair
$48.50
Bull
$58.20
Bear
$38.80
+4.8%
$2.95 × 13x P/E
Fair
$48.50
+31.1%
$2.95 × 16x P/E
Bull
$58.20
+57.3%
$2.95 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.91 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.50 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 107%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples