MD Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.
$21.27
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 39.0% below fair value

You pay $21.27
Bear $27.88
Fair $34.85
Bull $41.82
Bear $27.88 +31.1% $2.66 × 12x P/E
Fair $34.85 +63.8% $2.66 × 15x P/E
Bull $41.82 +96.6% $2.66 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.20 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.85 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 37%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.20 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 72% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples