MCS
The Marcus Corporation
$23.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 101.7% above fair value
You pay
$23.78
Bear
$8.04
Fair
$11.79
Bull
$15.07
Bear
$8.04
-66.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$11.79
-50.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$15.07
-36.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
27.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.3%
vs 5.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.79 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 59% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions