MCS
The Marcus Corporation
$27.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 46.6% above fair value
You pay
$27.14
Bear
$13.84
Fair
$18.51
Bull
$22.65
Bear
$13.84
-49.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$18.51
-31.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$22.65
-16.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
21.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.7%
vs 6.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$33.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $18.51 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 59% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $33.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions