MCS
The Marcus Corporation
$27.87
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 52.5% above fair value
You pay
$27.87
Bear
$13.72
Fair
$18.27
Bull
$22.29
Bear
$13.72
-50.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$18.27
-34.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$22.29
-20.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
21.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.9%
vs 6.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$33.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $18.27 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 59% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $33.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions