MCS
The Marcus Corporation
$18.08
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 29.0% above fair value
You pay
$18.08
Bear
$10.13
Fair
$14.02
Bull
$17.42
Bear
$10.13
-43.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$14.02
-22.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$17.42
-3.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.02 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $23.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions