MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.
$116.81
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.4% above fair value
You pay
$116.81
Bear
$86.95
Fair
$87.53
Bull
$93.13
Bear
$86.95
-25.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$87.53
-25.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$93.13
-20.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
29%
Implied Market Multiple
16.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $104.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $87.53 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions