MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.
$116.15
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 34.6% above fair value
You pay
$116.15
Bear
$82.91
Fair
$86.27
Bull
$92.76
Bear
$82.91
-28.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$86.27
-25.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$92.76
-20.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
29%
Implied Market Multiple
16.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.0%
vs 3.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$122.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $86.27 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $122.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions