MCFT
MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.
$25.01
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 53.6% above fair value
You pay
$25.01
Bear
$11.84
Fair
$16.28
Bull
$20.72
Bear
$11.84
-52.7%
$2.96 × 4x
Fair
$16.28
-34.9%
$2.96 × 6x
Bull
$20.72
-17.2%
$2.96 × 7x
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
2.96$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.96)
Implied Market Multiple
8.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
44%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.96 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $16.28 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 4.9x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 4.9x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $29.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing