MCFT
MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.
$19.50
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 157.9% above fair value
You pay
$19.50
Bear
$5.50
Fair
$7.56
Bull
$9.62
Bear
$5.50
-71.8%
$1.37 × 4x
Fair
$7.56
-61.2%
$1.37 × 6x
Bull
$9.62
-50.7%
$1.37 × 7x
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
1.37$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.37)
Implied Market Multiple
14.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
72%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.37 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $7.56 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.9x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 2.9x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing