MBUU
Malibu Boats, Inc.
$21.95
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 41.8% above fair value
You pay
$21.95
Bear
$11.26
Fair
$15.48
Bull
$19.70
Bear
$11.26
-48.7%
$2.81 × 4x
Fair
$15.48
-29.5%
$2.81 × 6x
Bull
$19.70
-10.2%
$2.81 × 7x
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
2.81$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.81)
Implied Market Multiple
7.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$34.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.81 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $15.48 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.9x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 2.9x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing