MBUU
Malibu Boats, Inc.
$27.57
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.6% below fair value
You pay
$27.57
Bear
$21.62
Fair
$29.50
Bull
$37.38
Bear
$21.62
-21.6%
$5.06 × 4x + net cash
Fair
$29.50
+7.0%
$5.06 × 6x + net cash
Bull
$37.38
+35.6%
$5.06 × 7x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($5.06)
Implied Market Multiple
5.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.75 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.50 per share.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing