MATW
Matthews International Corporation
$26.76
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.1% below fair value
You pay
$26.76
Bear
$24.36
Fair
$30.45
Bull
$36.54
Bear
$24.36
-9.0%
$2.03 × 12x P/E
Fair
$30.45
+13.8%
$2.03 × 15x P/E
Bull
$36.54
+36.5%
$2.03 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.03, the base-case value is $30.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.97.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $20.97 (below our primary estimate by 31%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples