MATV
Mativ Holdings, Inc.
$11.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.5% below fair value
You pay
$11.59
Bear
$14.23
Fair
$14.23
Bull
$16.46
Bear
$14.23
+22.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$14.23
+22.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$16.46
+42.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
1.8%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $14.23 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions