MAT
Mattel, Inc.
$16.65
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.5% below fair value
You pay
$16.65
Bear
$14.88
Fair
$18.60
Bull
$22.32
Bear
$14.88
-10.6%
$1.24 × 12x P/E
Fair
$18.60
+11.7%
$1.24 × 15x P/E
Bull
$22.32
+34.1%
$1.24 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.24$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$16.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.24, the base-case value is $18.60 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 104% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples