MAT
Mattel, Inc.
$15.09
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.8% below fair value
You pay
$15.09
Bear
$15.05
Fair
$18.81
Bull
$22.57
Bear
$15.05
-0.3%
$1.24 × 12x P/E
Fair
$18.81
+24.6%
$1.24 × 15x P/E
Bull
$22.57
+49.6%
$1.24 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.29 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.81 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 104% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples